Description

This analysis provides a forecast of OM prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 0.053067 0.060297 0.068383 0.078141 0.089654 0.102875 0.119307
2026-01-25 0.042289 0.051247 0.062099 0.076360 0.094831 0.118256 0.150712
2026-02-01 0.033906 0.043335 0.055547 0.072824 0.097137 0.130913 0.182830
2026-02-08 0.028928 0.038850 0.052535 0.073326 0.105097 0.153567 0.236783
2026-02-15 0.024985 0.035096 0.049876 0.073887 0.113632 0.180210 0.308456
2026-02-22 0.022035 0.032280 0.048096 0.075514 0.124647 0.215238 0.412576
2026-03-01 0.019525 0.029718 0.046267 0.076767 0.135780 0.255526 0.552076
2026-03-08 0.017018 0.026763 0.043289 0.075432 0.142087 0.289958 0.704830
2026-03-15 0.014426 0.023278 0.038818 0.070390 0.139709 0.305572 0.825116
2026-03-22 0.013016 0.021624 0.037348 0.070950 0.149907 0.357095 1.103844
2026-03-29 0.011998 0.020520 0.036715 0.073160 0.165086 0.431536 1.557543
2026-04-05 0.010949 0.019205 0.035451 0.073737 0.176760 0.504743 2.128580
2026-04-12 0.009990 0.017953 0.034157 0.074116 0.188851 0.591371 2.961419
2026-04-19 0.008989 0.016482 0.032164 0.072347 0.194385 0.661201 3.897584
2026-04-26 0.008009 0.014928 0.029749 0.068959 0.193841 0.708888 4.856795
2026-05-03 0.007412 0.014095 0.028822 0.069364 0.206494 0.830280 7.008271
2026-05-10 0.006889 0.013350 0.027981 0.069836 0.220054 0.975084 10.350398
2026-05-17 0.006477 0.012797 0.027510 0.071310 0.238682 1.177022 16.411889
2026-05-24 0.006091 0.012250 0.026963 0.072440 0.257037 1.411044 26.513910
2026-05-31 0.005634 0.011489 0.025755 0.071166 0.264578 1.587094 38.998842
2026-06-07 0.005080 0.010440 0.023654 0.066444 0.253938 1.607350 46.977498
2026-06-14 0.004796 0.010002 0.023112 0.066947 0.269633 1.895227 79.813635
2026-06-21 0.004595 0.009738 0.023004 0.068990 0.295166 2.351896 162.159459